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505-Great Investors: Philip Fisher
  The late Phil Fisher was one of the great investors of all time and the author
  of the classic book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Fisher started his
  money management firm, Fisher & Co., in 1931 and over the next seven decades
  made tremendous amounts of money for his clients. For example, he was an early
  investor in semiconductor giant Texas Instruments TXN, whose market
  capitalization recently stood at well over $40 billion. Fisher also purchased
  Motorola MOT in 1955, and in a testament to long-term investing, held the
  stock until his death in 2004.
  
  
  Fisher's Investment Philosophy
  
  Fisher's investment philosophy can be summarized in a single sentence:
  Purchase and hold for the long term a concentrated portfolio of outstanding
  companies with compelling growth prospects that you understand very well. This
  sentence is clear on its face, but let us parse it carefully to understand the
  advantages of Fisher's approach. The question that every investor faces is, of
  course, what to buy? Fisher's answer is to purchase the shares of superbly
  managed growth companies, and he devoted an entire chapter in Common Stocks
  and Uncommon Profits to this topic. The chapter begins with a comparison of
  "statistical bargains," or stocks that appear cheap based solely on accounting
  figures, and growth stocks, or stocks with excellent growth prospects based on
  an intelligent appraisal of the underlying business's characteristics.
  
  The problem with statistical bargains, Fisher noted, is that while there may
  be some genuine bargains to be found, in many cases the businesses face
  daunting headwinds that cannot be discerned from accounting figures, such that
  in a few years the current "bargain" prices will have proved to be very high.
  Furthermore, Fisher stated that over a period of many years, a well-selected
  growth stock will substantially outperform a statistical bargain. The reason
  for this disparity, Fisher wrote, is that a growth stock, whose intrinsic
  value grows steadily over time, will tend to appreciate "hundreds of per cent
  each decade," while it is unusual for a statistical bargain to be "as much as
  50 per cent undervalued."
  
  Fisher divided the universe of growth stocks into large and small companies.
  On one end of the spectrum are large financially strong companies with solid
  growth prospects. At the time, these included IBM IBM, Dow Chemical DOW, and
  DuPont DD, all of which increased fivefold in the 10-year period from 1946 to
  1956.
  
  Although such returns are quite satisfactory, the real home runs are to be
  found in "small and frequently young companies… [with] products that might
  bring a sensational future." Of these companies, Fisher wrote, "the young
  growth stock offers by far the greatest possibility of gain. Sometimes this
  can mount up to several thousand per cent in a decade." Fisher's answer to the
  question of what to buy is clear: All else equal, investors with the time and
  inclination should concentrate their efforts on uncovering young companies
  with outstanding growth prospects.
  
  
  Fisher's 15 Points
  
  All good principles are timeless, and Fisher's famous "Fifteen Points to Look
  for in a Common Stock" from Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits remain as
  relevant today as when they were first published. The 15 points are a
  qualitative guide to finding superbly managed companies with excellent growth
  prospects. According to Fisher, a company must qualify on most of these 15
  points to be considered a worthwhile investment:
  
  1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential
  to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years? A
  company seeking a sustained period of spectacular growth must have products
  that address large and expanding markets.
  
  2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or
  processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the
  growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been
  exploited? All markets eventually mature, and to maintain above-average growth
  over a period of decades, a company must continually develop new products to
  either expand existing markets or enter new ones.
  
  3. How effective are the company's research-and-development efforts in
  relation to its size? To develop new products, a company's
  research-and-development (R&D) effort must be both efficient and effective.
  
  4. Does the company have an above-average sales organization? Fisher wrote
  that in a competitive environment, few products or services are so compelling
  that they will sell to their maximum potential without expert merchandising.
  
  5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin? Berkshire Hathaway's
  BRK.B vice-chairman Charlie Munger is fond of saying that if something is not
  worth doing, it is not worth doing well. Similarly, a company can show
  tremendous growth, but the growth must bring worthwhile profits to reward
  investors.
  
  6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins? Fisher
  stated, "It is not the profit margin of the past but those of the future that
  are basically important to the investor." Because inflation increases a
  company's expenses and competitors will pressure profit margins, you should
  pay attention to a company's strategy for reducing costs and improving profit
  margins over the long haul. This is where the moat framework we've spoken
  about throughout the Investing Classroom series can be a big help.
  
  7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations? According
  to Fisher, a company with good labor relations tends to be more profitable
  than one with mediocre relations because happy employees are likely to be more
  productive. There is no single yardstick to measure the state of a company's
  labor relations, but there are a few items investors should investigate.
  First, companies with good labor relations usually make every effort to settle
  employee grievances quickly. In addition, a company that makes above-average
  profits, even while paying above-average wages to its employees is likely to
  have good labor relations. Finally, investors should pay attention to the
  attitude of top management toward employees.
  
  8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations? Just as having good
  employee relations is important, a company must also cultivate the right
  atmosphere in its executive suite. Fisher noted that in companies where the
  founding family retains control, family members should not be promoted ahead
  of more able executives. In addition, executive salaries should be at least in
  line with industry norms. Salaries should also be reviewed regularly so that
  merited pay increases are given without having to be demanded.
  
  9. Does the company have depth to its management? As a company continues to
  grow over a span of decades, it is vital that a deep pool of management talent
  be properly developed. Fisher warned investors to avoid companies where top
  management is reluctant to delegate significant authority to lower-level
  managers.
  
  10. How good are the company's cost analysis and accounting controls? A
  company cannot deliver outstanding results over the long term if it is unable
  to closely track costs in each step of its operations. Fisher stated that
  getting a precise handle on a company's cost analysis is difficult, but an
  investor can discern which companies are exceptionally deficient--these are
  the companies to avoid.
  
  11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry
  involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding
  the company may be in relation to its competition? Fisher described this point
  as a catch-all because the "important clues" will vary widely among
  industries. The skill with which a retailer, like Wal-Mart WMT or Costco COST,
  handles its merchandising and inventory is of paramount importance. However,
  in an industry such as insurance, a completely different set of business
  factors is important. It is critical for an investor to understand which
  industry factors determine the success of a company and how that company
  stacks up in relation to its rivals.
  
  12. Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regard to
  profits? Fisher argued that investors should take a long-range view, and thus
  should favor companies that take a long-range view on profits. In addition,
  companies focused on meeting Wall Street's quarterly earnings estimates may
  forgo beneficial long-term actions if they cause a short-term hit to earnings.
  Even worse, management may be tempted to make aggressive accounting
  assumptions in order to report an acceptable quarterly profit number.
  
  13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require
  sufficient equity financing so that the larger number of shares then
  outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders' benefit from this
  anticipated growth? As an investor, you should seek companies with sufficient
  cash or borrowing capacity to fund growth without diluting the interests of
  its current owners with follow-on equity offerings.
  
  14. Does management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are
  going well but "clam up" when troubles and disappointments occur? Every
  business, no matter how wonderful, will occasionally face disappointments.
  Investors should seek out management that reports candidly to shareholders all
  aspects of the business, good or bad.
  
  15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity? The
  accounting scandals that led to the bankruptcies of Enron and WorldCom should
  highlight the importance of investing only with management teams of
  unquestionable integrity. Investors will be well-served by following Fisher's
  warning that regardless of how highly a company rates on the other 14 points,
  "If there is a serious question of the lack of a strong management sense of
  trusteeship for shareholders, the investor should never seriously consider
  participating in such an enterprise."
  
  
  Important Don'ts for Investors
  
  
  In investing, the actions you don't take are as important as the actions you
  do take. Here is some of Fisher's advice on what you should not do.
  
  1. Don't overstress diversification.
  Investment advisors and the financial media constantly expound the virtues of
  diversification with the help of a catchy cliche: "Don't put all your eggs in
  one basket." However, as Fisher noted, once you start putting your eggs in a
  multitude of baskets, not all of them end up in attractive places, and it
  becomes difficult to keep track of all your eggs.
  
  Fisher, who owned at most only 30 stocks at any point in his career, had a
  better solution. Spend time thoroughly researching and understanding a
  company, and if it clearly meets the 15 points he set forth, you should make a
  meaningful investment. Fisher would agree with Mark Twain when he said, "Put
  all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket!"
  
  2. Don't follow the crowd.
  Following the crowds into investment fads, such as the "Nifty Fifty" in the
  early 1970s or tech stocks in the late 1990s, can be dangerous to your
  financial health. On the flip side, searching in areas the crowd has left
  behind can be extremely profitable. Sir Isaac Newton once lamented that he
  could calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of crowds.
  Fisher would heartily agree.
  
  3. Don't quibble over eighths and quarters.
  After extensive research, you've found a company that you think will prosper
  in the decades ahead, and the stock is currently selling at a reasonable
  price. Should you delay or forgo your investment to wait for a price a few
  pennies below the current price?
  
  Fisher told the story of a skilled investor who wanted to purchase shares in a
  particular company whose stock closed that day at $35.50 per share. However,
  the investor refused to pay more than $35. The stock never again sold at $35
  and over the next 25 years, increased in value to more than $500 per share.
  The investor missed out on a tremendous gain in a vain attempt to save 50
  cents per share.
  
  Even Warren Buffett is prone to this type of mental error. Buffett began
  purchasing Wal-Mart many years ago, but stopped buying when the price moved up
  a little. Buffett admits that this mistake cost Berkshire Hathaway
  shareholders about $10 billion. Even the Oracle of Omaha could have benefited
  from Fisher's advice not to quibble over eighths and quarters.
  
  
  The Bottom Line
  
  Philip Fisher compiled a sterling record during his seven-decade career by
  investing in young companies with bright growth prospects. By applying
  Fisher's methods, you, too, can uncover tomorrow's dominant companies.