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404-Putting DCF into Action
  Course 404:
  Putting DCF into Action
  
  Now that we've covered the workings of discounted cash-flow (DCF) models in
  general and a bit about how we treat them at Morningstar, we'll dig a little
  deeper into how to determine fair values for stocks. In this lesson, we'll
  walk you through a step-by-step sample DCF model that uses the "free cash flow
  to equity" method. Here are the main steps to generating a per share fair
  value estimate with this method:
  
    Step 1. Project free cash flow for the forecast period.
    Step 2. Determine a discount rate.
    Step 3. Discount the projected free cash flows to the present, and sum.
    Step 4. Calculate the perpetuity value and discount it to the present.
    Step 5. Add the values from Steps 3 and 4, and divide the sum by shares
    outstanding.

  Step 1--Project Free Cash Flow
  The first step in projecting future cash flow is to understand the past. This
  means looking at historical data from the company's income statements, balance
  sheets, and cash-flow statements for at least the past four or five years.
  Once you've examined the historical data and perhaps entered it into a
  spreadsheet program, it's time to project the company's free cash flow in
  detail for the next couple of years. These projections are the meat of any DCF
  model. They will rely on your knowledge of the company and its competitive
  position, and how you expect things will change in the future. If you think
  profit margins will expand, or sales growth will slow dramatically, or the
  company needs to increase its capital expenditure to maintain its facilities,
  your projections should reflect those predictions.
  Next, we need to estimate the company's "perpetuity year." This is the year at
  which we feel we can no longer adequately project future free cash flow. We
  also need to make a projection concerning what the company's free cash flow
  will be in that year.
  To begin, let's suppose that the fictitious firm Charlie's Bicycles generated
  $500 million in free cash flow last year. Let's also assume that Charlie's
  current lineup of bikes are very hot sellers, and the company is expected to
  grow free cash flow 15% per year over the next five years. After five years,
  we assume competitors will have started copying Charlie's designs, eating into
  Charlie's growth. So after five years, free cash flow growth will slow down to
  5% a year. Our free cash flow projection would look like this:
  Last Year: $500.00
  Year 1: 575.00
  Year 2: 661.25
  Year 3: 760.44
  Year 4: 874.50
  Year 5: 1005.68
  Year 6: 1055.96
  Year 7: 1108.76
  Year 8: 1164.20
  Year 9: 1222.41
  Year 10: 1283.53

  Step 2--Determine a Discount Rate
  Because we're using the "free cash flow to equity" method of DCF, we can
  ignore Charlie's cost of debt and WACC in coming up with a discount rate.
  Instead, we'll focus on coming up with an assumed cost of equity, using the
  principles highlighted in the previous lesson.
  Charlie's has been in business for more than 60 years, and it has not had an
  unprofitable year in decades. Its brand is well-known and respected, and this
  translates into very respectable returns on its invested capital. Given this
  and the relatively stable outlook for Charlie's profits, settling for a 9%
  cost of equity (lower than average) seems appropriate given the modest risks
  Charlie's faces.

  Step 3--Discount Projected Free Cash Flows to Present
  The next step is to discount each of the individual year's cash flows to
  express them in terms of today's dollars. Remember we are using the following
  formula, and the "discount factor" just represents the denominator in the
  equation. We can then multiply each year's cash flow by the discount factor to
  get the present value of each cash flow.
  Present Value of Cash Flow in Year N =
  CF at Year N / (1 R)^N
  CF = Cash Flow
  R = Required Return (Discount Rate), in this case 9%
  N = Number of Years in the Future
  Last Year: $500.00
  Year 1: 575.00 x (1 / 1.09^1) = 528
  Year 2: 661.25 x (1 / 1.09^2) = 557
  Year 3: 760.44 x (1 / 1.09^3) = 587
  Year 4: 874.50 x (1 / 1.09^4) = 620
  Year 5: 1005.68 x (1 / 1.09^5) = 654
  Year 6: 1055.96 x (1 / 1.09^6) = 630
  Year 7: 1108.76 x (1 / 1.09^7) = 607
  Year 8: 1164.20 x (1 / 1.09^8) = 584
  Year 9: 1222.41 x (1 / 1.09^9) = 563
  Year 10: 1283.53 x (1 / 1.09^10) = 542
  We then add up all the discounted cash flows from Years 1 through 10, and come
  up with a value of $5,870 million ($5.87 billion).

  Step 4--Calculate Discounted Perpetuity Value
  In this step, we use another formula from the last lesson:
  Perpetuity Value =
  ( CFn x (1 g) ) / R - g
  CFn = Cash Flow in the Last Individual Year Estimated, in this case Year 10
  cash flow
  g = Long-Term Growth Rate
  R = Discount Rate, or Cost of Capital, in this case cost of equity
  Morningstar analysts generally use 3% as the perpetuity growth rate, which is
  close to the historical average growth rate of the U.S. economy. We'll assume
  that after 10 years, Charlie's Bicycles will also grow at this 3% rate.
  Plugging the numbers into the formula:
  ( $1,284 x (1 .03) ) / .09 .03 = $22,042 million

  Notice that for the cash flow figure we used the undiscounted Year 10 cash
  flow, not the discounted $542 million. But because we used the undiscounted
  amount, we still need to express the perpetuity value in present-value terms
  using this trusty formula:

  Present Value of Cash Flow in Year N = CF at Year N / (1 R)^N
 
  Present Value of Perpetuity Value =$22,042 million / (1 .09)^10 = $9,311 million

  Step 5--Add It All Up
  Now that we have the value of all the cash flows from Year 1 through 10 as
  well as those from Year 11 on, we add up these two values:
  Discounted Free Cash Flow, Years 1-10: $5,870 million
  Discounted Free Cash Flow, Years 11 on: $9,311 million
  which equals $15,181 million.
  So there we have it! We have estimated Charlie's Bicycles to be worth $15.2
  billion. The final, simple step is to divide this $15.2 billion value by the
  number of shares Charlie's Bicycles has outstanding. If Charlie's has 100
  million shares outstanding, then our estimate of Charlie's intrinsic value is
  $152 per share.

  If Charlie's stock is trading at $100 per share, you should start to get
  interested in buying the shares. We can forget about what Charlie's P/E ratio
  is relative to its peers as well as what Wall Street analysts have recently
  said about the stock. The bottom line is the stock is trading below its
  estimated intrinsic value. If you have confidence in your free cash flow
  projections, you can have an equal amount of confidence in buying the stock.
 

  The Bottom Line
  As you may tell, this is merely a simple example of how to use a DCF model,
  but it's still not exactly "simple." Not many people put this much work into
  their investments. But if you're willing to go through the effort of creating
  a DCF model for a company you are interested in, you will be much more
  informed and confident than the vast majority of other investors.
  There are numerous small twists that the other type of DCF model (cash flow to
  the firm) uses, but the output should be approximately the same no matter
  which DCF method you use for a given firm. Also keep in mind that a model does
  not need to be super-complex to get you most of the way there and help you
  clarify your thinking. Remember, using a similar DCF model can take you a long
  way in finding superior companies trading at a discount to their intrinsic
  value--the key to a profitable long-term investing strategy.